On August 19^th and 20^th, the Southwest Florida Shelf Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model (ICEM) Workshop was held at Florida Gulf Coast University in Fort Myers. Over 40 participants contributed to the development of the ICEM. Since then, a team of technical writers have been developing a draft report describing the biological, physical and human dimensions of the region. The report will include socio-ecological models and diagrams (example below) with accompanying text describing the Southwest Florida Shelf. The report will be posted on this website, and an announcement will be sent to the MARES listserv (click here to subscribe).

Diagram illustrating the Southwest Florida Shelf Barrier Island system including near- and far-field impacts to the ecosystem.

What:

Southwest Florida Shelf Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model Technical Workshop
Participant list

Date:

Thursday, August 19, 2010 and Friday, August 20, 2010

Times:

August 19, 2010: 10 AM – 5 PM
August 20, 2010: 9 AM – 3PM

Agenda:

Draft Agenda

Read ahead materials:

· Draft Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas Reserve Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model (Mandatory reading for workshop participants)

· Including Human Dimensions Science in MARES

· Ecological conceptual models: framework and case study (Gentile et al, 2001)

Location:

Meeting:

Florida Gulf Coast University
Room location will be posted shortly
10501 FGCU Boulevard, South
Fort Myers, Florida 33965-6565
phone: 239.590.1000 website: www.fgcu.edu
(Click here for driving directions and map)

Parking:

Pick up a parking pass from the Information Booth (building #13 on campus map) before going to the meeting room (building #28 on map). You can download the FGCU campus map at: http://www.fgcu.edu/Admissions/files/MapwithLegend_Hi_Res.pdf

Suggested Lodging:

Embassy Suites Fort Myers - Estero
10450 Corkscrew Commons Drive, Estero, Florida 33928
ph: (239) 949 4222
(Click here for hotel details. Click here for reservation information)

Airport:

Southwest Florida Regional Airport (RSW)
11000 Terminal Access Road
Fort Myers, Florida 33913
phone: 239.590.4800 website: http://www.flylcpa.com
(Click here for map and driving directions)

Workshop Objective:

This meeting will be attended by technical experts who will contribute to the development of an Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model framework.

Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Models (ICEMs)

Conceptual Ecological Models (CEMs), as used by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan’s RECOVER team, are heuristic planning tools that serve to identify (1) the major drivers and stressors upon natural ecosystems, (2) the ecological effects of these stressors, and (3) the indicators of the ecological responses to changes in those drivers and stressors.  RECOVER developed a set of eleven such regional models, encompassing geographically distinct and largely contiguous domains that are intended to include the major cause-and-effect linkages within each modeled region.  These, along with a “total system” model, were published in a special issue of Wetlands (2005), which served to both (1) guide the selection of performance measures and the parameters that were included in the development of a regional monitoring plan, as well as to (2) identify key uncertainties/knowledge gaps that were expected to be addressed by research projects.  The authors of the marine/estuarine CEMs are among the PIs submitting this proposal.  Importantly, the CEMs are also serving CERP as a primary communication, planning and assessment link amongst scientists and policy-makers.  They are the principal organizing component in the CERP Applied Science Strategy (Ogden et al., 2003) and have served to build and cement consensus regarding the sources and effects of the major anthropogenic-induced changes in the natural systems of South Florida. During the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas CEM workshop in December 2009, the MARES project team developed Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Models (ICEMs) that expand the RECOVER CEMs to include a human-dimensions science component. This model will be used in the other sub-regions of the MARES project.

Background:

The inner southwest Florida shelf is dominated by alongshore flows that extend from Tampa Bay to the Florida Keys. Surface drifters deployed at the mouths of southwest Florida shelf estuaries can be retained within a few km of shore for periods of weeks to months (Lee et al., 2002). Circulation in this region is primarily driven by winds and buoyancy, with a seasonal cycle in alongshore flow that is regulated by changes in the wind field (Lee et al., 2001). Significant changes in flow through the mangrove-fringed estuaries have occurred over the last century (Wingaard et al., 2006). The prolonged residence time of surface waters on the inner shelf, and their limited connectivity with outer shelf waters, implies that estuarine outflows may have a significant impact on the salinity and nutrient condition of the southwest Florida shelf. This has been well documented over twelve years of quarterly sampling (Boyer and Briceño, 2007). A good case in point was the very wet year of 1995, where the effects of water releases from Shark Slough are clearly evident all the way out to the Marquesas (Fig. 1).

Restricted flows may also affect the development of harmful algal blooms (Brand and Compton, 2006) and diatom blooms in western Florida Bay (Jurado et al., 2007). Our growing knowledge of spatial patterns and temporal trends of water quality indicates that some of the phenomena we observe are driven by large-scale factors such as advection of Gulf of Mexico waters along the coast, with entrainment of coastal rivers and runoff. A dramatic example was the “Blackwater” event of 2001-2002 (Hu et al., 2004), when satellite imagery and field data were successfully used to conduct a forensics-like analysis to identify the constituents and probable cause of this occurrence (Fig. 2).

The southwest Florida shelf is integrally connected with the main Everglades fresh water thoroughfare with respect to hydrology and ecosystem response. While the southwest Florida shelf was not included in CERP-related efforts, changes within the Kissimmee, Okeechobee, and Shark Slough are sure to have direct implications for the SWFS. The magnitude of the effects upon coastal estuaries is exemplified by current management issues concerning the Caloosahatchee River and the Ten Thousand Islands. Water released from Lake Okeechobee to adjust lake levels for storm water management causes extreme and prolonged freshets that have detrimental effects upon estuarine ecosystems. The impacts upon seagrass beds and oyster physiology and ecology are well documented (Tolley et al., 2005; Volety et al., 2003; Volety 2007). The response of a variety of indicator organisms has been used to assess the impact prior to restoration (for example, see Savarese and Volety, 2001), and a comprehensive plan using ecosystem-based performance measures to monitor restoration effectiveness has been developed (Savarese et al., 2004a; 2004b; Popowski et al., 2004). These approaches need to be generalized and applied throughout coastal South Florida.

Among the marine areas expected to be most influenced by the CERP hydrological changes in South Florida are the mangrove-fringed estuaries adjacent to the SWFS. Alterations in fresh water inflows through these will affect the circulation, water quality and salinity patterns of the southwest Florida shelf. In turn, these changes will alter the structure and function of the mangrove ecosystems through tidal exchange and other processes. Not only will changes in upstream water management affect the southwest Florida shelf and the adjacent mangrove transition zone but the upstream counties are among the rapidly growing counties in the country. Development of an ICEM with associated goals and quantitative indicators will significantly assist planning and resource management as well as scientific research prioritization within this sub-region. Such an ICEM will need to incorporate not only these physical processes and their linkages to biogeochemical processes, but also the drivers and stresses associated with this rapidly-increasing human population pressure. Lastly, it has been well demonstrated that changes within the southwest Florida shelf can have enormous impacts downstream upon the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas.

Point of Contact:

Pamela Fletcher
Office: 305.361.4553
Email: Pamela.Fletcher@noaa.gov